I am afraid Southern Californians have become so accustomed to laissez-faire, easy-going lifestyle that we are having trouble taking the quarantine seriously. This is obviously not going to happen in January, fresh off of holiday super-spreader events. Neither scenario is likely to change until the vaccine is in enough of our bloodstreams to achieve herd immunity. NO: Epidemiological and political historians will one day write the story of the pandemic from the perspective of two scenarios: the unwillingness of too many to take basic precautions and the consequent overreach on the part of the government to gain control. The consequences of quarantining most Americans and shutting down workplaces caused a “perfect storm” of rising unemployment, higher suicide rates, suspended other essential health care, and left no chance to build up immunities key to stopping the virus. Of course, precautions should remain for those over 65 and others with chronic conditions, but massive lockdowns impose huge costs and dubious benefits. YES: From an economic perspective, lockdown restriction policies enriched the wealthy while crushing middle-class small businesses. Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research With a more normal life within reach, now is not the time to be brash. Economic benefits could be elusive as people are reluctant to shop, dine out, or return their children to school.
Even if front-line workers and the elderly are vaccinated, serious Covid-19 cases among other groups could continue to strain hospital capacity. The holidays will likely keep infection rates high and hospitals overwhelmed. NO: It would be not be wise to terminate California’s restrictions in January. Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University The vaccine must be widely distributed - to all vulnerable populations, before easing restrictions. Among ages 0-17, Latinos account for 65.7 percent of cases. Statewide, Latinos across all age groups make up 56 percent of COVID-19 cases - nearly three times that of white people. Coronavirus is hitting minorities at disproportionately high rates. Aggregate data might support this, but the devil is in the details. NO: The suggestion that lockdown restrictions could end in January with a limited vaccination approach is shortsighted. Reginald Jones, Jacobs Center for Neighborhood Innovation Assuming the current set of rules, the timing of a reopening could occur in late spring or early summer next year, unless guidelines are modified again. Even with an aggressive vaccine program, COVID-19 cases are expected to rise, peaking sometime in January, possibly starting to decrease in March. Couple those challenges with unattainable guidelines, and it will be impossible for the state to end its lockdown in January. NO: The bias of policies aimed at keeping California in lockdown mode are constantly changing rules and targets. Even if the state were to switch to a model in which decisions were largely focused on the groups most at risk, ending lockdown restrictions in January seems overly optimistic. While vaccinations are underway, the percent of the population that will be inoculated by the end of January will still be relatively small. NO: COVID infection rates and ICU availability in California seem unlikely to quickly improve over the next few weeks. Hopefully, the start of vaccinations along with continued precautions will help slow the spread and get us back on the path to normalcy. For the greater population, a perpetual lockdown isn’t sustainable. We must find a way to help protect the most vulnerable and our overtaxed medical professionals, while not annihilating small business and increasing unemployment. Restrictions for small businesses, including restaurants and personal services, should be re-evaluated if they aren’t proving to be significant contributors to the spread of COVID-19. NO: They are unlikely to end next month but they should be eased. If behavior changed and vaccines could be made available quickly for all health care providers and those at highest risk, restrictions could lift by the end of January. That does not appear to be the case, so we project increasing hospitalizations through January because of the holidays. NO: Scripps’ projections indicate a downward trajectory in January if community behavior supports the stay-at-home order as well as it did last March.